Econ/Stats Expert on Cook et al. Consensus Paper: ‘A Load of Nonsense’

The man-made global warming consensus debate has spilled over to Twitter. 

Apart from climate scientists and physicists,  investigative journalists, economic experts and statisticians have joined the fray and knocked down the hilarious Cook et al. paper that found  a 97-percent scientific consensus on man-made global warming.

One of these experts who found the “consensus” paper to be “worthless” and “a load of nonsense” is Dr. Richard Tol, an econometrics expert and researcher.

Dr. Tol has been posting a number of tweets that show a statistical destruction of Cook et al.’s 97-percent consensus paper. Tol used Twitter to educate Cook’s co-author Dana Nuccitelli as to why his ‘sample’ is not representative.

Including “global” before “climate change”, Cook et al. dropped 75% of papers and changed disciplinary distribution.
Including “global” before “climate change”, Cook et al. dropped many papers by eminent climate researchers.
Including “global” before “climate change”, Cook et al. dropped 33 of the 50 most cited papers.
Choosing exclusive WoS over inclusive Scopus, Cook et al. dropped 35% of papers and changed disciplinary distribution.

Nuccitelli’s response:

Exactly!

LOL! Hilarious!

Good answer, Mr. Tol!

Nuccitelli’s response? *Buzzzzzzz* then *blaagggg*! He’s knocked down…

“In his defense, [Dana] has had limited exposure to stats at uni” – Richard Tol

Including “global” before “climate change”, Cook et al. dropped 75% of papers and changed disciplinary distribution.

Tol posted this tweet two hours ago (as of this writing):

Go tel ’em, Dr. Tol!

You may also read Dr. Tol’s paper titled ‘Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature: A comment’ here.

Here’s an excerpt of his paper:

Consensus or near-consensus is not a scientific argument. Indeed, the heroes in the history of science are those who challenged the prevailing consensus and convincingly demonstrated that everyone thought wrong. Such heroes are even better appreciated if they take on not only the scientific establishment but the worldly and godly authorities as well.

…  Where does this leave us? The paper by Cook et al. is flawed. Its conclusions are unfounded. There is no doubt in my mind that the literature on climate change overwhelmingly supports the hypothesis that climate change is caused by humans. I have very little reason to doubt that that is indeed true and that the consensus is correct. Cook et al., however, failed to demonstrate this. Instead, they gave further cause to those who believe that climate researchers are secretive (as data was held back) and incompetent (as the analysis is flawed).

CV of Dr. Richard Tol (HT- Watts Up With That):

  • M.Sc. Econometrics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands (1992); Ph.D. Economics (Thesis: “A decision-analytic treatise of the enhanced greenhouse effect“), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands (1997); Researcher, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands (1992-2008); Visiting Researcher, Canadian Centre for Climate Research, University of Victoria, Canada (1994); Visiting researcher, Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, University College London, United Kingdom (1995); Acting Programme Manager Quantitative Environmental Economics, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The Netherlands (1998-1999); Visiting Associate Professor, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University (1998-2000); Board Member, Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Hamburg University (2000-2006); Lead Author, IPCC (2001); Contributing Author and Expert Reviewer, IPCC (2001, 2007); Associate Editor, Environmental and Resource Economics Journal (2001-2006); Adjunct Professor, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University (2000-2008); Michael Otto Professor of Sustainability and Global Change, Department of Geosciences and Department of Economics, Hamburg University, Germany (2000-2006); Editor, Energy Economics Journal (2003-Present); Visiting Research Scholar, Princeton Environmental Institute and Visiting Professor, Department of Economics, Princeton University (2005-2006); Research Professor, Economic and Social Research Institute, Ireland (2006-Present); Research Fellow, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University (2007-2010); Associate Editor, Economics E-Journal (2007-Present); Adjunct Professor, Department of Economics, Trinity College, Ireland (2010-2011); Professor of the Economics of Climate Change, Institute for Environmental Studies and Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Netherlands (2008-Present); Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, United Kingdom (2012-Present)

Thanks to

Populartechnology.net

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