60-30-10 Pattern Sparks Controversy

The 60-30-10 theory, which somehow cast doubt on the credibility of the recently concluded elections, seems to have shut the

Photo credit: Inquirer.net

Photo credit: Inquirer.net

Commission on Elections (Comelec) down in a catatonic stupor.

After dismissing the vote-sharing pattern as a mere “trending”, Comelec Chairman Sixto Brillantes Jr. was apparently forced to clear doubts about alleged election fraud by conceding he was willing to have all the ballot boxes opened to prove there were no irregularities.

In this Inquirer report, Brillantes stressed there was no fraud, saying the review by non-profit organizations and political parties of the source code of the precinct count optical scan (PCOS) machines would show that these were not manipulated to cheat in the polls. 

Brillantes said:

“Definitely, there was no fraud. I’m sure of that because the pattern that they’re saying, (if true), would mean that it was programmed. Definitely, it was not programmed

“I will stake my reputation on that: No one programmed it.”

The dubious pattern shows senatorial bets from the administration coalition led by President Noynoy Aquino received at least 60 percent of the votes cast in various precincts,  those from the United Nationalist Alliance 30 percent and the rest of the candidates 10 percent.

It seems that the election body needs a lot of explaining. Brillantes also added:

“If there’s a pattern, it could probably be a coincidence but it cannot have happened everywhere,” Brillantes said.

“We are having the source code reviewed now. We invite the parties to review it. No pattern will be discerned.

“In fact, the final evidence would be if we open all the ballot boxes in the Philippines. I’m willing to make a bet that 98 (or) 99 percent of the ballots and the PCOS would have the same results.”

According to this report, IT experts have been collaborating with non-partisan election watchdogs to investigate the controversial vote-sharing pattern. However, they clarified they were not insinuating the results were rigged, nor have they suggest the Comelec or any group could be guilty of conspiracy.

Ateneo professor Lex Muga, who discovered the pattern by looking at the senatorial tallies from the first to the 16th canvass reports released by the Comelec, posted Facebook updates that gained public attention.

“Note that the COCs (certificates of canvass) are supposed to be received randomly. But we still have an interesting pattern,” Muga said on Facebook on Sunday.

“My impression is that the campaign of Team PNoy for a 12-0 sweep nationwide was effective. I don’t know how they did it but it was effective. UNA [candidates] had no stronghold. [Their votes] were scattered,” he a television interview.

But how did Twitter folks react to this issue? 

Rappler claims to have debunked the 60-30-10 theory.

Here’s an excerpt of the Rappler article:

Rappler studied the regional results of the race from officially canvassed results, and found that nothing suggests that the vote shares were anomalous. While Team PNoy swept all the regions based on the aggregate votes of its 12 bets compared with UNA’s 9, the percentages that each coalition got per region varied.

We also ran the data by Michael Purugganan, a Filipino scientist familiar with statistics and Dean of Science at New York University. He said there is, indeed, “a 6% spread between the low and the high end by region,” which is “a pretty respectable spread in the variation.”

Senator Frank Drilon, campaign manager for Team PNoy, dismissed the pattern as a “ridiculous conspiracy theory”.

Is Drilon simply defensive?

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